Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 5 - 20 June, 2019
Forecast Issued Tuesday, June 4, 2019
June is traditionally a pretty reliable bet if you’re heading to Indonesia with surfboards in tow. As the southern hemisphere winter kicks in, stronger and more frequent storms begin to develop across the Southern Ocean storm-track - usually giving rise to consistently powerful and often large groundswells arriving one after another out of the SW and/or SSW.
However, this year, the first week of June might have you feeling a little deflated. That’s most of this week holds pretty marginal surf potential; characterised by small scale swells arriving out of the SW and SSW; for the most part not exceeding 2 to 3ft (and it’s likely to be notably smaller than this on Wednesday and Thursday). The good news is there is swell coming – and by that I mean proper, winter-scale SSW groundswell, ranging anywhere from 4 to 8ft or more depending on when and where you look. So put a smile on you dial and check it out .
Small SSW swell continues to fade. Slow sets up to 2ft exposed breaks, more like 1 to 2ft or less elsewhere and near flat inside more sheltered breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Small SSW groundswell bumps up. Initially slow 1 to 2ft+ along exposed breaks, building to 2 to 3ft+ in the afternoon, otherwise grading to lower levels elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
SSW groundswell slowly fades. Slow sets up to 2 to 3ft along exposed breaks, otherwise smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 15 knots.
Reinforcing SSW groundswell. Slow sets up to a clean 2 to 3ft+ across the most exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 12 knots in the afternoon.
Small SSW groundswell hangs in an inconsistent 2 to 3ft+ exposed breaks, inconsistent in the upper range. Building to 3 to 4ft+ in the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 knots.
Scope for stronger SSW groundswell building throughout the day. Speculatively 3 to 4ft+ exposed breaks early, rising to 4 to 6ft the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Surf potential looks like ramping up a bit into the second week of June, with new swell-sources appearing over disparate parts of Indonesia’s swell window into the end of this week and over the course of the weekend. The most promising developments are centred around a broad high pressure ridge forecast to strengthen throughout the south-eastern Indian Ocean over the next few days; setting up a long SSW fetch in conjunction with lows and fronts occupying mid and polar latitudes. Initially this looks like producing a large, but relatively low-strength fetch-area averaging 30 knots, with the head extending well up into the mid-latitudes on Thursday and Friday.
However, it’s the subsequent development of a deeper low pressure system southwest of Western Australia that presents more promise. This feature should also interact with the aforementioned ridge to establish a stronger 40kt+ SSW fetch directly below Sumatera and Java throughout Friday and the weekend. Although the storm is projected to tear across the southwest of WA on Sunday, the source may be given a second-wind as a new low feeds into this system on Monday; rejuvenating a 30 to 40kt fetch immediately adjacent to the West Coast.
The upshot is promising potential for three to four days of sizeable SSW swell; arriving out of a very southerly directional band just either side of 200 degrees. This phase looks like getting underway at low levels on Sunday, ahead of a more substantial building trend setting in on Monday; speculatively peaking in the 6 to 8ft+ realm throughout Tuesday 11th and possibly holding similar size as it eases on Wednesday 12th June. The secondary fetch developing early next week may provide a reinforcing SSW pulse into Thursday/ Friday 14th, but this will become clearer in next week’s update.
Finally, in tandem with all this south-swell activity we also have significant storm-development looming further west: out below South Africa and Madagascar later this week. A couple of deep lows migrating eastward through this region are projected to set up broad areas of zonal gales – roughly over the same time as the sources mentioned above. Given the longer distance of these sources from Indonesia, the swells will take longer to arrive and will lose more energy prior to landfall. Never the less, the presents good potential for a couple of high-period, long-range SW pulses; the first moving in at very high peak intervals of 20 seconds on Thursday 13, ahead of the bulk of swell arriving o Friday 14th and Saturday 15th; raising the possibility of having two notable swells in the water. Stay tuned for next update on Tuesday 11th.
Peak season is in full swing for Indonesia and the Indian Ocean continues to dish out swells through the end of July.
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