Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 31 July - 15 August
Forecast Issued Tuesday, July 30, 2019
It’s clear that the transition from July to August will occur without fanfare when it comes to surf across Indonesia this year. The knock on effect of a relatively subdued winter storm-track sees a continuation of relatively small, accessible conditions across the more exposed west-facing breaks this week, preceding the arrival of something more substantial this weekend. While this isn’t looking like anything to out of the ordinary, it does look like leading in several days of consistent, mid-range SW swell, spilling over into early to mid next week. Going on longer-term forecasts, it looks like the Indian Ocean storm-track will reactivate into the second week of August, potentially setting up something bigger into the middle of the month.
Small SSW groundswell fills in, ranging from 2 to 3ft+ along exposed breaks, while wrapping at lower levels inside more sheltered breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE/SE 10 to 15 knots.
Small SSW groundswell continues in the 2 to 3ft+ across the most exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and dropping a foot or so during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE to SE 10 to 20 knots.
Leftover SSW swell reinforced by new SSW forerunners into the afternoon. Initially ranging from 1 to 3ft along exposed breaks, building to 2 to 4ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Fresh ESE to SE 15 to 25 knots.
New SW groundswell fills in. Sets up to a clean 3 to 5ft across the most exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE to SE around 15 to 25 knots.
Easing SW groundswell from 220 degrees. Up to 3 to 4ft+ across exposed breaks, wrapping in at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and settling during the afternoon. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 20 knots.
Potential for reinforcing SW groundswell arriving throughout the day. Around 3 to 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 20 knots.
There’s no shortage of new swell-potential brewing for Indonesia throughout the early August, with longer-term guidance already hinting at something large arriving out of the southwest over the weekend of Saturday 13th. Up until then, we have a succession of smaller-scale storm-systems forecast to traverse the southern Indian Ocean; variously offering up a stream of small to mid-range SW and SSW swells for the region.
The first of these is a cut-off low intensifying north of the Kerguelen Islands on Wednesday; giving rise to a fairly compact, 30 to 40kt southerly fetch. The head of this source extends to just over 2,100 nautical miles of Bali on Thursday, before the low begins to bear away to the southeast as it approaches Western Australia on Friday and Saturday. This looks like adding some reinforcing SW groundswell into the mix on Monday 5th and Tuesday 6th; holding potential for 3 to 5ft sets across the more exposed breaks on both days, before slowly easing throughout Wednesday 7th.
This pulse should receive some reinforcement from a couple of smaller SW pulses arriving later next week, following the development of a pair of storms below South Africa and Madagascar over the next few days. While nothing to write home about, these two lows may amalgamate with a third system to form a larger polar storm down near 60S this weekend. This holds better potential for a long-range SSW groundswell arriving during Friday 9th, ahead of the bulk of swell hitting on Saturday 10th – but at this early stage, specifics surrounding surf potential remain a little unclear.
Beyond that, longer term GFS guidance hints at something bigger for mid-August. This hinges on the development of a larger, more intense low pressure southeast of South Africa on Monday 5th, burgeoning into a large, broadscale system over the south-western Indian Ocean on Tuesday 6th. This may culminate in the development of a long SW to WSW fetch-area of 40 to 50knots developing between Tuesday 6th and Thursday 8th; resulting in a large, long-period SW to SSW groundswell inbound around the 14th/15th. At this early stage corresponding EC runs are playing down the forecast strength of the storm and associated wind-speeds, so significant revisions to this scenario are likely as the week progresses.
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